Atlanta Hawks at Memphis Grizzlies odds, picks and prediction

USA Today Sportsbookwire

The Atlanta Hawks (10-9) drop by FedExForum to play the Memphis Grizzlies (9-9) Friday at 8 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Hawks vs. Grizzlies odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions, and bets.

Atlanta enters on a six-game win streak (5-1 ATS) with the latest being a 124-106 road beatdown of the San Antonio Spurs Wednesday. Atlanta has the league's highest offensive efficiency and effective field goal shooting over that span. The Hawks are 8-11 ATS and 9-10 O/U with the 10th-best net rating (plus-1.6).

Memphis has split its previous six games (3-3 ATS) but got drilled 126-113 at home by the Toronto Raptors Wednesday.

The Grizzlies have the worst defensive efficiency and second-worst defensive rebounding rate over that six-game span. Memphis is 10-8 ATS and 10-8 O/U with the 25th-ranked net rating (minus-5.5).

These teams split last year's season series 1-1 with the road team winning and covering each contest and both sides of the total cashed in those meetings.

Hawks at Grizzlies odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports' betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:15 a.m. ET.

Money line: Hawks -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Grizzlies -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Hawks +1.5 (-115) | Grizzlies +1.5 (-105)
Over/Under (O/U): 225.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

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Hawks at Grizzlies key injuries

Hawks

PG Trae Young (ankle) probable
SG Bogdan Bogdanovic (hamstring) questionable
SF De'Andre Hunter (wrist) out

Grizzlies

SG De'Anthony Melton (groin) questionable

Hawks at Grizzlies odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Hawks 118, Grizzlies 113

Money line

"LEAN" to the HAWKS (-105) because they have been playing elite basketball over the past couple of weeks and Atlanta's pick-and-roll action should be very successful against Memphis (more on that below).

However, I cannot fully endorse an Atlanta wager at this time because of how poorly the Hawks have played on the road this season.

Atlanta is 2-8 in road games with minus-8.0 points per 100 possessions and a minus-6.7 spread differential (ranked 28th), according to CleaningTheGlass.com.

Against the spread

PASS since the Hawks +1.5 (-115) doesn't offer much insurance for our Atlanta money line bet. If the Hawks' spread goes to 2.5 or higher then I'd "lean" towards taking the points with Atlanta.

Over/Under

BET the OVER 225.5 (-115) since it's my favorite play in the Hawks-Grizzlies contest. Both offenses should get buckets in this matchup.

Atlanta runs the highest frequency of pick-and-roll action through the ball handler, and Memphis has the third-worst efficiency against pick-and-roll action through the ball handler and through the roll man.

The Grizzlies get out in transition at the third-highest rate in the Association and the Hawks' transition defense only grades in the 17.2nd percentile of efficiency. Also, Memphis scores the most paint points per game and Atlanta ranks 23rd in paint points per game allowed.

The Grizzlies run a lot of offense off screens and the Hawks rank dead-last in defensive efficiency against offense off of screens.

I think the league-wide trend of Unders (cashing at a 59.5% clip) has lowered the Hawks-Grizzlies total despite that the matchup screams "Over".

The Hawks-Grizzlies combined for 234 points and 244 points in their two meetings last season. The first contest went Under because the total was set at 238.5. The bottom line is this total should be around 230 so I'll BET the OVER 225.5 (-115) since I'm figuring in roughly 4.5 points of value.

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